Deciding with Incomplete Information: Lessons from a CTO and a Coach
Why leaders must get comfortable making high-stakes calls before all the facts are in.
Executives rarely enjoy the luxury of perfect data. In complex organisations, information is fragmented, late, or politically filtered. Yet decisions still have to be made about investments, product launches, restructurings, or safety issues.
As a CTO leading €3B-plus infrastructure programmes, and now as an Executive Clarity Coach, I’ve learned this first-hand: most leadership choices aren’t between “good” and “bad” options, but between imperfect ones under time pressure. Expecting perfect clarity before acting is a recipe for paralysis.
The myth of the “complete picture”
Business books often imply that great leaders gather all the data, weigh every scenario, and then pick the optimal path. In reality:
- Data is always partial and sometimes contradictory.
- The environment shifts faster than your analysis can.
- Political or market forces introduce unknowns you can’t model.
If you’re waiting for “full information,” you’re not being thorough - you’re being late.
CTO’s reality check
When we built a major energy infrastructure programme, our plans were based on the best available data at each stage, not on omniscience. We used assumptions, explicitly labelled, as placeholders for what we didn’t yet know. As new information arrived, we updated the assumptions and adjusted the plan.
This isn’t weakness; it’s disciplined leadership. You decide, monitor, and iterate.
Assumptions: your invisible team members
Most executives treat assumptions as embarrassing guesses. In fact, they’re a powerful tool for clarity:
- Name them. Write assumptions down so everyone sees the same “unknowns.”
- Prioritise them. Which assumptions, if wrong, would sink the plan? Monitor those first.
- Review them. As time passes, update and adjust decisions without shame.
A good plan is a living document, not a monument.
Coaching framework for imperfect decisions
In coaching sessions with senior leaders, I often use a simple three-part lens to break decision paralysis:
1. Define the decision window
How much time do you truly have before a choice must be made? Sometimes “urgency” is self-imposed. If you can wait 48 hours, use it to test an assumption or consult an expert. If you can’t, make the best call now and plan a review point.
2. Clarify options, not outcomes
Instead of asking “What’s the perfect answer?”, ask “What options are feasible given what we know?” List 2–3 viable moves. Label the assumptions under each.
3. Set a review trigger
Decide in advance what new information would prompt a course correction. This normalises adaptation and removes the stigma of “changing your mind.”
This approach blends decisiveness with humility. It also keeps your team engaged: they see a leader who acts, but also listens and updates.
Why “cooling the soup” matters
An old saying reminds us: “No soup is eaten as hot as it’s cooked.” Not every decision needs to be swallowed immediately. If the stakes are high and the window allows, give it time to cool just enough to clarify your thinking. Pausing briefly is different from delaying indefinitely.
Practical steps for leaders
- Make Assumptions Visible. Every major plan should have a short list of explicit assumptions.
- Communicate the Provisional Nature of Decisions. Tell your team, “This is our decision based on today’s data; we’ll review in two weeks.”
- Use Pre-Mortems. Ask, “If this fails, which assumption was wrong?” It’s a quick stress test.
- Normalise Adjustment. Changing course when facts change is responsible, not weak.
- Protect Reflection Time. Even in crises, carve out a few hours for thinking before acting.
Clarity under pressure
Leaders who master decision-making with incomplete information build organisational confidence. They show that speed and learning can coexist. They reduce the fear of mistakes and create a culture where assumptions are surfaced rather than hidden.
You may never have perfect data. But you can have a perfect process: decide on the best available information, make your assumptions explicit, and review as new facts emerge. That is real clarity under pressure.
Raido Kivikangur is an Executive Clarity Coach and former CTO (€3B+ infrastructure programmes) who helps tech and infrastructure leaders cut through decision fatigue and lead with calm authority.
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https://coachraido.com/lead-without-hesitation/